Walk into an Australian supermarket and count the flavours of potato chips (crisps) from Kettle, Pringles, Red Rock Deli and Smith’s. I did, and the answer is 42. Chinese carmakers alone now sell about 72 models in Australia.
That figure comes from Pitcher Partners, the same analysis behind my earlier post on Australia’s Chinese EV soup. It has roughly 72 Chinese models on sale in 2026, jumping to about 120 in 2027. That is before you count a single Toyota, Ford or Mazda. Why so many, so fast? Liam Denning’s Bloomberg column in The Age has the answer, and it is not demand.
The crisp aisle, audited
Smith’s and Kettle lead with 14 flavours each. Pringles has 9 and Red Rock Deli 5. Total: 42.
I have been generous to the crisps, too. Salt & Vinegar turns up four times (Kettle twice, Pringles and Smith’s). Sweet Chilli & Sour Cream appears three times. Merge the obvious repeats and you are down to about 30 genuinely different flavours. That is my count, not an industry one, and it ignores Doritos, Thins, CC’s and the rest of the aisle.
Even so, the shelf has its moments. Hot Honey & Ricotta. Spicy Pickle. Sizzling Meat Lovers Pizza. Someone in a product development meeting said that last one out loud and nobody stopped them.
The showroom, unaudited
Now the cars. Seventy-two Chinese models, from more than 20 Chinese brands, in a market of about 1.2 million sales a year. By 2027 Pitcher expects 32 brands and 120 models. That is nearly three crisp aisles' worth of flavours, all of them with a battery.
Why the flood is coming
Denning puts numbers on the madness. About 85 million passenger vehicles will be sold worldwide this year, according to BloombergNEF. The world’s factories can build 142 million. That is roughly 60 per cent utilisation, against a breakeven that analyst Glenn Mercer puts at 80 per cent or more. Picture a crisp factory running at 60 per cent and still launching a new flavour every week.
The gap is mostly China. About 28 million vehicles of new capacity have been added over the past decade, and four-fifths of it is in China. Global sales rose by only 5 million over the same period. China’s own market has plateaued, leaving it able to build more than two cars for every one it sells at home. Without exports, Denning says, Chinese utilisation would fall below 50 per cent. In his words, China is exporting its excess car capacity problem across the world.
The doors are closing elsewhere. The US has effectively shut itself off from Chinese models, Europe is imposing quotas after tariffs failed, and Volkswagen is ending production at several German plants. Australia has built no cars since 2017, so it has no local industry to protect. My read, not Denning’s: the cars have to go somewhere, and we are an open showroom.
Even when it works, this is a thin business. The world’s automakers made an aggregate operating margin of just 3.6 per cent last year, which in dollars was less than Apple alone. Add a flood of capacity chasing sales that are not there and something has to give. It will not be the factories first. It will be the weakest brands, then their importers, then the people holding the warranty.
This can’t end well.
What a wrong pick costs
The difference between a crisp and a car is what happens when you pick wrong. Buy a flavour nobody else likes and the worst outcome is a lonely lunch. Buy a model from a brand that quietly leaves and you are an unsecured creditor with a car that is losing 40 to 50 per cent of its value. Crisp makers discontinue flavours all the time, and nobody has ever asked who will service a Spicy Pickle.
So the next time you stand in the snack aisle unable to choose, spare a thought for the car buyer. The crisps will still be there next year. Check whether the brand on the boot will be too.
Sources:
- Flooding the zone: the rise of Chinese vehicle brands in Australia - Pitcher Partners
- The China car flood is out of control - Liam Denning, Bloomberg, via The Age
- Orphan brands: what happens if and when Chinese car brands leave Australia - Drive Electric